Can hybrids lead the pathway for decarbonization of the US light-duty vehicle fleet?

Context

With the Trump administration’s executive orders slamming the brakes on electric vehicle mandates and incentives, and reviewing the greenhouse gas standards, the EV market is expected to face headwinds in the U.S. and this raises questions on the status of improvements in fleet-wide fuel consumption. 

Hybrids, which are not subject to mandates, might offer a pathway for continued fuel economy improvements while electrification again finds its footing. This post summarizes the key findings on the CO2 reduction potential for “strong” hybrids (or a full hybrid – as contrasted with a mild hybrid which has limited battery capacity and all electric drive).

Hybrids have gained popularity in recent years, with more models available at a reasonable cost adder compared to conventional ICE-only vehicles. A recent article by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) analyzes the CO2 emission reductions and the cost of hybrid powertrains for light-duty passenger cars and pickups in the U.S.

It concludes that “strong hybrids provide a 30% reduction in tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at an average price premium of $2,000, with average 10-year fuel cost savings of $4,500. Future strong hybrids can provide an additional 15% reduction in GHG emissions at an average additional price premium of between $300 and $800.”