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NHTSA proposes revised CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks

Reference: NPRM issued by NHTSA, published December, 2025

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has issued a notice for proposed rulemaking (NPRM) for the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicle Rule III for Model Years 2022 to 2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks. 

The revised rule amends previous CAFE standards and effectively lowers the maximum feasible fuel economy standards due to the elimination of electric vehicles when setting future standards. It will require an annual increase in fuel economy of 0.5% per year for 2022–2026, and 0.25% per year for 2027–2031 in the preferred option.

NHTSA projects that the amended standards would correspond to a fleetwide average of ~34.5 mpg in MY 2031.

Here are some important details of this proposal.

NHTSA is proposing three alternatives, shown in the table here, of which alternative 2 is the preferred one.

What’s Changing ?

EVs Removed from Standard-Setting

  • NHTSA will no longer consider EV or PHEV fuel economy in setting CAFE targets.
  • Compliance credits from EVs and plug-ins excluded
  • Penalties for non-compliance eliminated (Internal credit transfer, e.g., passenger car ↔ light truck, and banking still allowed)
  • Standards are based solely on gasoline and diesel vehicle performance
  • A/C efficiency and some off-cycle technologies removed from standard-setting

 

Off-Highway Criteria Revised

  • Eliminates outdated criteria (e.g., third-row seat fold-flats, axle clearance).
  • Vehicles must exhibit true off-road or cargo capability to be labeled “light trucks.”
  • Performance-based “light-duty work factor (LDWF)” introduced for payload/towing

 

EPCA Preemption Reaffirmed

  • States cannot adopt or enforce their own fuel-economy standards—regardless of EPA Clean Air Act waivers.
  • NHTSA asserts this preemption remains in effect, though no new formal action is taken.

Further Reading / Information

As with most regulations there is a lot of supporting information available. The picture here is from the technology visualization dashboard, showing the penetration of various advanced technologies for the overall industry. One in every two vehicles is anticipated to be a strong hybrid by 2031.

 

NHTSA will hold a virtual public hearing on January 7, 2026, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern time. Register here to watch.

MOBILITYNOTES MEMBERS: Click below to download the revised fuel economy curves with the underlying calculations.

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