California's Heavy-Duty Electrification Regulations

Advanced Clean Trucks

California’s Governor Newsom signed an Executive Order (N-79-20), which targets 100% of new light-duty vehicle sales to be zero-emitting (ZEVs*) by 2035, all drayage trucks to be ZEVs by 2035 and all buses and long-haul trucks to be ZEVs by 2045. 

To realize this Executive Order, California’s Air Resource Board (CARB) approved the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation in June 2020 and it goes into effect starting model year 2024. Manufacturers will have to sell an increasing portion of new vehicles as ZEVs and meet the requirements in the table shown here.  As shown in this table, the requirements are not easy to meet: in less than a decade, the regulation will require every other Class 4 – 8 truck to be a ZEV (plug-in hybrid vehicles earn partial credits). However, mandating sales is only one side of the coin, and successful implementation will also require a market pull for the electric vehicles.

That will be address by the Advanced Clean Fleets, discussed next.
*ZEVs = Zero-emitting vehicles, defined as those with zero CO2 emissions at the tailpipe, as with electric and fuel-cell vehicles.

Advanced Clean Fleets (in discussion)

This is not a regulation yet. CARB is conducting workshops to discuss the current thinking and get feedback. Here is the latest on this topic, based on the September 9, 2021 workshop:

The regulation will apply to vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) > 8,500 lbs. (that is the cut-off above which vehicles are classified as heavy-duty).

Public fleets

50% of new vehicle purchases must be ZEVs starting 2024, and 100% starting 2027.


Drayage fleets

Drayage trucks transport containers to and from seaports and intermodal railyards.

Diesel drayage trucks must meet MY2010 engine standards starting 2023.

Starting late-2023, all new purchases must be ZEVs.

All Class 7 & 8 drayage trucks must be ZEVs by 2035. All non-ZEV trucks will be removed from the fleet after 2035.


High priority and federal fleets: 

This applies to federal government fleets and entities which own 50 or more vehicles or have revenues > $50M in 2023.

The ZEV fleet percentage targets for this segment varies according to vehicle type, and here are the dates to reach 100% :

2035 : Box trucks, vans, two-axle buses, yard trucks

2039 : Work trucks, day cab tractors, three-axle buses

2042 : Sleeper cab tractors and specialty vehicles

Various types of vehicles are exempted, such as school buses, military vehicles, emergency vehicles (e.g. electricity providers) and snow removal vehicles.


Finally, California will have a 100% ZEV sales requirement : starting model year 2040, all Class 2b-8 vehicles sold into California must be ZEVs, with some exclusions for emergency vehicles.

Evolution of the HD vehicle powertrain in California

This picture shows CARB’s assessment. The implementation of the advanced clean trucks and fleets rules are expected to transform the diesel / natural gas dominated transportation today to a primarily zero tailpipe emitting fleet beyond 2045. Also note that the overall fleet is expected to grow to meet the increased transportation needs.

Implications

As mentioned earlier, the Advanced Clean Fleets is not a regulation yet. Still, CARB’s thinking is very clear : accelerate the transition of trucks and buses to zero emitting as soon as possible. This is easier said than done, of course, and will require massive public and private spending to establish the required infrastructure and to purchase the trucks.  



Here’s a part of the assessment by the City of Long Beach, as expressed in a memorandum published in May, 2021.



While we embrace the State’s aggressive approach to reach zero emissions, Staff remains cautious because of the significant investment of resources that will be required while the level of grant or other financial support is unclear.


[ … ]


Based on a preliminary estimate, the impact of the regulations, not including potential grant funding, are as follows:
• Approximately $1.5 million a year to City fleet costs beginning in FY 24, of which approximately 34 percent, or $500,000 a year, would be General Fund. This is an unfunded cost to replace the required trucks.
• Approximately $10 million in one-time costs for heavy-duty charging stations, of which $5 million would be General Fund. These are very preliminary ballpark numbers. It is unknown how much of those costs could be grant-funded; hopefully, grant funding will be significant.


A clarification if you have been thinking of electric trucks throughout this article – fuel cell vehicles are also expected to play an increasing role in this transition, and getting getting green hydrogen economically and at scale is also not a trivial issue to be addressed.

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