How much biofuels can we make, really ?

Background

The U.S. currently produces approximately 340 million tons, which accounts for about 5% of its total energy production. While this is not exactly a drop in the bucket – pun totally intended – there is clearly room for growth.

Despite the significant push for electrification, it is understood that lowering the carbon footprint of existing vehicles will require switching to cleaner, low carbon intensity fuels. The immediate question this raises, is “how much low carbon fuel can we make?” and its close cousin, “doesn’t using biomass for fuels affect the food production?”

Since its first publication in 2005, the U.S. DOE’s Billion-Ton report series provides a definitive guide for understanding the capabilities and challenges of the U.S. bioeconomy. Here is a brief summary of the latest report, which includes new resources like oilseeds and macroalgae. The report also discusses the costs associated with each of the resources. Other notable changes include the incorporation of USDA Baseline Projection for food crop demands and the latest costs adjusted to 2022 dollars.

It concludes that the U.S. can potentially increase biomass production from the current capacity of 342 million tons to as much as 1.7 “billion” tons. And this is a conservative estimate, including sustainability considerations, and without taking away from food production.