Report

How much biofuels can we make, really ?

A summary of the “2023 Billion-Ton Report”
An assessment of United States’ renewable carbon resources by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Reference

U.S. DOE Billion Ton Report

Background

The U.S. currently produces approximately 340 million tons, which accounts for about 5% of its total energy production. While this is not exactly a drop in the bucket – pun totally intended – there is clearly room for growth.

Despite the significant push for electrification, it is understood that lowering the carbon footprint of existing vehicles will require switching to cleaner, low carbon intensity fuels. The immediate question this raises, is “how much low carbon fuel can we make?” and its close cousin, “doesn’t using biomass for fuels affect the food production?”

Since its first publication in 2005, the U.S. DOE’s Billion-Ton report series provides a definitive guide for understanding the capabilities and challenges of the U.S. bioeconomy. Here is a brief summary of the latest report, which includes new resources like oilseeds and macroalgae. The report also discusses the costs associated with each of the resources. Other notable changes include the incorporation of USDA Baseline Projection for food crop demands and the latest costs adjusted to 2022 dollars.

It concludes that the U.S. can potentially increase biomass production from the current capacity of 342 million tons to as much as 1.7 “billion” tons. And this is a conservative estimate, including sustainability considerations, and without taking away from food production. 

 

Key Findings

Even in the near-term (~ 5-10 years), the biomass production could double (to 691M tons), attributed mostly from waste (plastic, paper and cardboard, food waste, municipal solid waste, etc.)

Including contribution of energy crops in mature markets – those with well-established supply chains, technologies, regulatory frameworks, and customer bases – and emerging resources such as microalgae, the total output can increase to over 5X compared to today, to 1.7 billion tons.

Sources of increased biomass production include:

  1. Agricultural Residues and Wastes: These include residues from crops such as corn stover, wheat straw, and other byproducts from agricultural processes. These materials are already being generated and can be more effectively harnessed to provide a significant source of biomass.

  2. Forestry Residues: Wood and logging residues, which include materials left over from forestry operations, such as branches and trimmings, offer a substantial contribution to biomass. This category also includes sawdust and other byproducts from wood processing industries.

  3. Energy Crops: These are crops specifically grown for energy production rather than food. They include fast-growing grasses and trees like switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar, which can be cultivated on marginal lands that are not suitable for food crops.

  4. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW): Organic fractions of MSW, such as food scraps and yard waste, present a considerable opportunity for biomass production. This source also involves the conversion of waste into energy through processes like anaerobic digestion.

  5. Algal Biomass: Although more in the emerging resource category, algae have the potential for rapid growth rates and high biomass yields under suitable conditions. They can be cultivated on non-arable lands and use wastewater, thus not competing with food resources.

  6. Waste Carbon Dioxide: Utilizing advanced technologies to capture and convert waste CO2 into usable fuels through processes like gas fermentation or as a feedstock for algae growth can also contribute to biomass availability.

 

As shown in the figure, the cost of the various biomass sources can vary significantly from < $50 / ton for waste to > $600 / ton for the microalgae. Naturally, it is expected that the lower cost sources will be tapped first.

Impact on food?

  • Stable Food Prices: Despite the increased demand for land and potentially for agricultural inputs that might come with expanded biomass production, the report projects that food prices would remain stable. This stability is attributed to improvements in agricultural practices, yield enhancements, and the strategic selection of lands for energy crops that do not compete directly with food crop areas.
  • Economic Benefits to Farming Communities: The report also highlights that the introduction of biomass crops could lead to increased revenues for farmers. This economic uplift is expected because energy crops can provide a new source of income without displacing existing food production, potentially making agricultural operations more profitable and resilient.

Concluding Remarks

Will biofuels be the solution for all transport decarbonization problems? Not a chance, we simply use far too much fuel and the usage is only growing. But other than scrapping older vehicles, the use of renewable, low carbon intensity fuels is the only option for lowering greenhouse gas emissions from legacy fleets. As such, the increased use of biofuels and the continuous improvement in the carbon intensity of their production, is imperative.

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