The European Union has proposed changes to the CO₂ tailpipe limits for light-duty vehicles as part of the “Fit for 55” package.

For 2030, here are the revised targets:

Passenger cars: Current 37.5% reduction to be replaced with a 55% reduction, versus 2021 levels

Vans: 31% replaced by 50% reduction versus 2021 levels.

Also proposed is a ban on the sale of any new light-duty gasoline or diesel vehicle beyond 2035.

In the US, the Biden administration is revising the light-duty vehicle economy “SAFE” standards. Current EPA standards require a 1.5% reduction each year, while California had struck a voluntary deal with a few OEMs for a 3.7% reduction. Here is a possible scenario:

US EPA aligns with California for a 3.7% reduction from model year 2023 – 2026

For model years 2027 to 2030, the standards will get even tighter, perhaps a 6 – 7% reduction each year. 

Biden has also signed an executive order setting a target of 50% electrification (including plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles) by 2030. 

Note the words “proposals, scenario, possible” etc. peppered throughout – much of the above is uncertain but one thing is sure, we are looking at significant tightening of fuel economy standards in the two major automotive markets.