California Clean Cars 2.0 : Emission standards beyond 2025
Based on workshops held by California’s Air Resource Board (CARB)
Background
California has the world’s toughest gas emissions standards for light-duty vehicles. The standards phase-in to 30 mg/mi of combined non-methane organic gases (NMOG) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 2025. CARB is now considering tightening these and other standards even more beyond 2025, while also promoting reduced fuel consumption and electrification of the fleet. A few key takeaways follow.
Non-ZEV SULEV 30 fleet and pathway to 100% EV sales by 2035
California’s Air Resource Board (CARB) is aiming for further NOx and particulate reductions from the light-duty fleet. Here’s a summary of the proposed approach, based on a workshop held on May 6th, 2021.
Fleet Electrification
- Goal is to achieve 100% plug-in electric sales by 2035.
- Move from credit driven to sales driven approach: one ZEV credit per ZEV, with 5-year credit life.
- PHEVs must have > 50mi all-electric range, must be able to complete US06 on all electric mode, and meet SULEV30 & zero evaporative emission standards. 20% cap on PHEVs allowed to fulfill OEM obligation to ZEV requirements.
- As input to cost modeling, it is assumed that battery pack costs fall from $100/kWh in 2026 to $63/kWh in 2035.
Low Emitting Vehicle (LEV) : Criteria pollutants
- Separate non-ZEV fleet averaged limit of 30 mg/mi for combined NMOG + NOx. New bins to be added down to SULEV10 and some of the higher bins removed.
- Certification required to meet stand-alone standards for FTP, US06 and SCO3 tests. NMOG + NOx standard for US06 to be set to same value as FTP.
- Cold start emissions after an intermediate soak (20 min – 5 hour): Emissions limits proportional to soak time between 10 min and 3 hours. For soaks > 3 hours, must meet overnight soak emissions.
- Quick drive-away emissions: Modifying the FTP test to reduce idle time from 20 sec to 5 sec
- High powered cold starts from PHEVs: New US06 cold-start standard based on best performers. PHEVs capable of all electric drive over US06 exempt.
- Particulate standards: US06 limits to be reduced but actual limit to be decided (likely at or below 3 mg/mi). No consideration of going below 1 mg/mi on FTP at this point.
- Medium-duty vehicles (Class 2b – 3) to be required to meet in-use testing procedures and standards from HD Omnibus Rulemaking. Adopt new standalone US06 standard.
Key Takeaway (1)
California is not messing around with Gov. Newson’s executive order to phase out combustion engines by 2035. However, current targets will allow plug-in hybrids to be sold beyond 2035 (in addition to full electrics)
Key Takeaway (2)
The move to regulate the non-ZEV portion of the fleet is a good one. It ensures that even with increasing number of EVs in the fleet, the rest of the ICE powered vehicles will continue to get cleaner.
Key Takeaway (3)
While CARB mentions that particulate reductions are a priority, the current set of changes only further reduce these under US06 cycle and for plug-in hybrids. There is no change in PM limit on the FTP cycle below 1 mg/mi. It remains to be seen whether the ACC 2.0 standards will be stringent enough to require GPF addition to passenger cars like in Europe and China.