Do raw material constraints pose a speed bump to the $100/kWh target?

Visual Capitalist has put out a nice graphic on the cost breakdown of a battery cell in 2021. Added here are a couple of other graphics to lend a bit more color to the story.

From left to right –

  • Battery prices are lowest in China (no surprise) and are 40 – 60% higher in the US/EU.
  • Cell prices have dropped by ~ 36% in the last 5 years. There is a ~ 30% markup from cell to pack prices today. This is for light-duty only – heavy-duty packs are much more expensive
  • Almost half of the cost of the cell is cathode materials. Of these raw materials, 30% cost approximately is attributed to Li, 20% to Cobalt and the rest to Nickel and Manganese.
  • Prices of these critical raw materials (Li, Co, Ni, Mn) have increased substantially in the last quarter or so, such that the cell price has actually increased by ~ $10/kWh in Q4, 2021 – not shown here.
  • It will be interesting to see how the supply / demand of these raw materials affects the timing for < $100/kWh pricing.

Also not included above is the price of LFP, which is ~ 30% lower than NMC.

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