Passenger car fuel economy standards

“.. past performance does not necessarily predict future industry trends” – sounds like advice from your stock broker? Nope, that is a line taken out of EPA’s automotive trends reports on light-duty fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

That warning is perhaps justified. One could argue that car manufacturers have implemented the low-hanging fuel economy improvements. Further improvements will require a choice of increasingly exotic technologies and their combinations, to meet upcoming fuel economy standards in various major markets.

The chart here shows these standards for a few of the major automotive markets.

• Europe will require a 37.5% reduction in tailpipe CO2 through the end of this decade. On the WLTP test cycle, this results in a limit of 59 g-CO2/km. The European Climate Law to be published next year (2021) could potentially revise the standard further.
• The battle between the EPA and CARB over fuel efficiency standards (and CARB’s legal authority to set these) is far from settled. In the meantime, NHTSA and EPA have set standards out to 2026 and CARB has struck deals with OEMs for following its more stringent targets.
• China has standards set in terms of fuel consumption (L/100km), converted here to a g-CO2/km basis. There will certainly be a 2030 target coming soon.
• Recently, Korea announced targets through 2030.

Also see : Do you know how the city / highway fuel economy label on cars in the US is calculated ?

Further reading

• EPA Automotive Trends Report
• ICCT : Passenger vehicle fuel economy